| Obama | McCain |
| 32.7% probability of winning | 65.4% probability of winning |
| Mean of 262 electoral votes | Mean of 276 electoral votes |
Yesterday, Sen. Barack Obama had a 19.3% probability of defeating Sen. John McCain in a general election. Today, there were four new polls today that contribute to this match-up. Obama regains gains some lost ground.
Now, after 10,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 3,266 times (plus he takes the 196 ties), and McCain wins 6,538 times. If a general election were held today, Obama would have a 34.6% (32.66% plus 1.96% for ties) probability of winning the election, and McCain has a 65.4% probability of taking the election.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every 7 days using polls from 23 Sep 2007 to 23 May 2008, and including polls from the preceding 1 month
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